A Message From The CEO
Jackson Johnson
What We Saw in the 2026 AEP & What It Tells Us About 2027
The 2026 Annual Enrollment Period wrapped up yesterday, and while it did not generate the same level of upheaval or anxiety as 2025, that is exactly what makes it worth paying attention to. This was a calmer AEP across much of the country, and that calm gives us a clearer signal about where the Medicare market is heading over the next couple of years.
A Quieter AEP, by Design
In many markets, particularly throughout the South, we simply did not see the level of disruption that defined last year. Fewer plan exits and abrupt benefit changes naturally led to lower total enrollment volume for many agents. So if your total enrollment volume was down year-over-year, don’t worry.
When disruption decreases, large-scale client migration decreases too. That leads to stability. Agents may have written fewer AEP applications, but they often did so into plans that fit better and are more likely to hold. That sets the stage for stronger renewals and more predictable income throughout 2026.
Where the Volume Still Showed Up
Even in a calmer year, clear winners emerged. Humana stood out as the strongest overall carrier in many markets, while Devoted performed exceptionally well on the PPO side in areas where PPOs remained viable despite rising costs.
Geographic regions varied a lot. Parts of the Northeast experienced significantly more movement, driven largely by UnitedHealthcare’s efforts to reduce membership. When a carrier pulls back at that scale, business shifts whether other carriers are ready for it or not, and those effects were felt more sharply in those markets.
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A Meaningful Change from 2025
One of the most important differences between 2025 and 2026 was what did not happen. Last year, mid-AEP plan suppressions caught agents off guard and created unnecessary chaos for clients. This year, we had much fewer suppressions.
That made a big difference. It suggests carriers are becoming more cautious about how they manage growth during volatile periods, even as financial pressures remain. It also raises a longer-term question about whether CMS will eventually take steps to limit mid-AEP suppressions, given how disruptive they are for both producers and beneficiaries.
Product Mix Is Continuing to Shift
We continue to see a gradual but noticeable move toward HMOs in markets that had historically been dominated by PPOs. While that shift can feel uncomfortable in the short term, it may ultimately support more stability long-term.
PDPs remain expensive, driven in part by Inflation Reduction Act out-of-pocket limits, while Medicare supplements continue to increase as medical inflation pushes higher across the board. Against that backdrop, Medicare Advantage continues to draw beneficiaries away from Original Medicare, largely because of cost predictability.
Ancillary opportunities remain wide open, particularly Hospital Indemnity in markets that are heavy with $0 Medicare Advantage premiums. With a $25-30 HI plan, those MA plans are a strong option for many people.
What This Sets Up for 2026
We believe a calmer AEP will lead to a more active Open Enrollment Period. In markets where carriers reduced benefits instead of exiting altogether, there will be beneficiaries who stayed put during AEP and later realize their coverage no longer fits.
Frustrations with the reintroduction of referrals on some plans, benefit changes, and drug cost shifts are all likely to drive OEP movement. DSNP changes will be especially important to watch, as reductions in monthly benefits and ongoing drug pricing issues create new pressure points for clients. DSNP alignment rules for 2026 will create massive upside for certain carriers.
Beyond OEP, mid-year opportunities should remain strong. Supplement premium increases continue to hit people hard, and agents who stay engaged outside of AEP will be well-positioned to capture that movement. Expanded availability of HIDE/FIDE enrollment periods and additional CSNP plans should also keep Q2 and Q3 more active than they were this past year.
Looking Ahead to 2027
Disruption is not off the table for 2027 and 2028, but we don’t expect it to be as intense as 2025 or 2026. Risk adjustment updates, star rating changes, Inflation Reduction Act implications, and inflation will take some time to level.
At this point, 2027 looks reasonably stable. Competitive, yes. Busy, certainly. But not chaotic.
The Bottom Line
This was a solid AEP. It lacked the same drama as 2025 for many agents, but it delivered something more valuable: sustainability. Less upheaval does not mean fewer opportunities. In this case, it just means things are starting to settle a little bit.
Agents who adjust their mindset accordingly and focus on building durable books, rather than chasing the next disruption, will be positioned to do well not just in 2026, but well beyond it.
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